Australia’s birthrate is expected to fall sharply over the next four decades, leading to national problems if strong migration does not return.

The fifth Intergenerational Report reveals, due to COVID-19, Australia’s population in 40 years will be about 1.2 million people smaller than previously predicted.

Australia’s population in 2060-61 is now expected to be 38.8 million, compared to the 2015 prediction of almost 40 million by 2054-55.

Much of that shortfall on 2015 estimates has been attributed to the effects of the pandemic.

Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg told 6PR’s Oliver Peterson it will be impossible to make up the population growth lost during the pandemic.

“In order for the population to be replaced you require 2.1 babies for every woman, yet in Australia the ratio is now 1.65, and it will continue to decline over the years ahead,” he said.

“So immigration will continue to play a larger role in our population growth.

“The declining fertility rate has been exacerbated by the impact of COVID on our migration, which has seen population growth now at it’s lowest level in 100 years.

“So even though migration does pick up in the years ahead, we don’t make up the lost ground made by the closed border during COVID.”

Press PLAY to hear more about the lasting impact the pandemic will have

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